Short basket WING · SG · SHAK · CAVA · CMG · BROS with comp legs DPZ · YUMC · YUM · MCD. Market data live via yfinance; operating data maintained manually per earnings season (last updated 2026-06-11).
| Ticker | Company | Argus rank | Short score | Action | Key reason | Data as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SG | Sweetgreen | 2 | 56 | Watch | Worst fundamentals: revenue -2.9% y/y, SSS -12.8%, -21% operating margin — but crowded (~21% SI) and bombed out. | 2026-06-11 |
| WING | Wingstop | 1 | 40 | Wait for bounce | Top priority: domestic SSS -8.7% (traffic-led), guidance cut, still ~23x EV/EBITDA. | 2026-06-11 |
| MCD | McDonald's | — | 34 | Watch | Long leg: defensive brand, value-menu flexibility, franchise mix, ~20x fwd P/E. | 2026-06-11 |
| CMG | Chipotle Mexican Grill | 5 | 34 | Watch | Margin pressure real (RLM -250bps y/y) but high quality and ~22x fwd P/E — not a priority standalone short. | 2026-06-11 |
| YUM | Yum Brands | — | 30 | Watch | Long leg: franchised royalty model absorbs less restaurant-level cost pressure, ~20x fwd P/E. | 2026-06-11 |
| DPZ | Domino's Pizza | — | 29 | Wait for bounce | Long leg: value-oriented, franchised, delivery/carryout economics at ~15x fwd P/E. | 2026-06-11 |
| CAVA | CAVA Group | 4 | 28 | Pair candidate | Expensive (~108x fwd P/E) but traffic +6.8% still strong — wait for deceleration below mid-single digits. | 2026-06-11 |
| SHAK | Shake Shack | 3 | 26 | Watch | Rebound short: company-operated, 21.2% RLM, GAAP operating loss; short bounces toward $65-75. | 2026-06-11 |
| BROS | Dutch Bros | 6 | 24 | Avoid short | Avoid: Q1 transactions +5.1%, guidance raised, ~44.5% short interest — squeeze risk. | 2026-06-11 |
| YUMC | Yum China | — | 22 | Watch | Long leg: scale, value formats, China recovery optionality at ~13-14x fwd P/E. | 2026-06-11 |
| Ticker | Price | Mkt cap | EV | EV/EBITDA | Fwd P/E | P/S | SI % float | 52w hi / lo | vs 50DMA | vs 200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WING | $144.19 | $3.9B | $5.1B | 22.7x | 25.8x | 5.5x | 19.5% | $381.45 / $116.35 | -8.0% | -36.7% |
| SG | $8.71 | $1.0B | $1.2B | n/m | n/m | 1.5x | 21.2% | $16.70 / $4.49 | +19.7% | +25.0% |
| SHAK | $54.83 | $2.3B | $2.9B | 16.7x | 36.2x | 1.6x | 12.5% | $144.65 / $51.60 | -31.8% | -38.4% |
| CAVA | $83.71 | $9.8B | $9.6B | 64.3x | 110.7x | 7.6x | 13.3% | $98.79 / $43.41 | +0.2% | +21.4% |
| CMG | $30.67 | $39.3B | $43.4B | 18.8x | 22.6x | 3.2x | 3.9% | $58.42 / $28.04 | -6.4% | -15.1% |
| BROS | $62.25 | $10.9B | $9.4B | 31.3x | 49.9x | 6.2x | 44.5% | $74.65 / $44.58 | +14.2% | +10.3% |
| DPZ | $309.75 | $10.3B | $15.4B | 15.0x | 14.8x | 2.1x | 12.1% | $496.00 / $297.48 | -7.9% | -21.4% |
| YUMC | $43.80 | $15.2B | $16.8B | 9.2x | 13.5x | 1.3x | 1.2% | $58.39 / $41.69 | -6.4% | -8.1% |
| YUM | $152.46 | $42.0B | $54.1B | 18.1x | 20.3x | 5.0x | 3.0% | $169.39 / $137.33 | -1.6% | -0.3% |
| MCD | $282.36 | $200.6B | $254.5B | 17.1x | 19.9x | 7.3x | 1.5% | $341.75 / $271.85 | -2.6% | -7.8% |
| Ticker | Latest qtr | Rev y/y | Rev q/q | Comps | Traffic | Ticket | RLM | Op margin | Net new stores | Guidance | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WING | Q1 2026 | +7.4% | +4.6% | -8.7% | — | — | 25.1% | 27.4% | 97 | Cut | Q1 domestic SSS -8.7% (traffic-led, after -5.8% in Q4 2025); management blames lower transaction volumes, inflation, gas prices, pressured lower-income consumer. System-wide sales +5.9% and adj EBITDA +9.9% mask the domestic comp crack. |
| SG | Q1 2026 | -2.9% | +4.1% | -12.8% | -11.2% | -1.6% | 10.0% | -21.3% | 4 | Maintained | Q1 revenue -2.9% to $161.5M, SSS -12.8% (traffic -11.2%), RLM 10.0% vs 17.9% year-ago, operating margin -21.3%. GAAP EPS +$1.05 is a one-time Spyce divestiture gain — strip it and the quarter lost ~$0.29/share. Worst fundamentals in basket but already bombed out. |
| SHAK | Q1 2026 | +14.3% | -8.4% | +4.6% | +1.4% | +3.2% | 21.2% | -0.7% | 17 | Raised | Q1 revenue +14.3%, Same-Shack sales +4.6% (traffic +1.4%, price/mix +3.2%), but 21.2% RLM and a $2.6M operating loss — brand growth not converting to GAAP earnings. April SSS tracking -0.6% post-quarter. Near 52-week lows; prefer shorting rebounds, not chasing. |
| CAVA | Q1 2026 | +32.1% | — | +9.7% | +6.8% | +2.9% | 25.1% | 5.8% | 20 | Raised | Strong Q1: revenue +32.1%, SRS +9.7% (traffic +6.8% vs -1.4% in Q4), RLM 25.1%, guidance raised. Q4 traffic was briefly negative before the Q1 reacceleration. Bear case is valuation only, not execution. Short trigger: traffic below mid-single digits or RLM below 24%. |
| CMG | Q1 2026 | +7.4% | +2.9% | +0.5% | +0.6% | -0.1% | 23.7% | 12.9% | 49 | Maintained | Q1 comps recovered to +0.5% (transactions +0.6% vs -3.2% in Q4 2025 — a traffic inflection) but ticket slipped to -0.1%; adj RLM -250bps y/y to 23.7% on beef/freight/labor, operating margin 12.9% vs 16.7%. Real margin pressure, but quality too high to prioritize. |
| BROS | Q1 2026 | +31.0% | +4.7% | +8.3% | +5.1% | +3.2% | 28.3% | 7.4% | 41 | Raised | Q1 system same-shop sales +8.3%, transactions +5.1% (company-operated stronger), revenue +31%, guidance raised. Clean execution + extreme short interest = squeeze risk. Short trigger: transaction growth decelerating to low-single digits. |
| DPZ | Q1 2026 | +3.5% | — | +0.9% | — | — | — | 20.0% | 180 | Cut | US SSS decelerated to +0.9% (vs +3.7% in Q4) as low-income consumers pulled back on delivery; carryout +2.4% outpaced delivery -0.3%. Operating margin still expanded 110bps y/y to 20.0% on supply-chain leverage; management expects ~450 rival store closures to drive H2 share gains. Franchised model intact — comp cut is demand, not economics. |
| YUMC | Q1 2026 | +9.7% | +15.9% | +0.0% | +2.0% | -2.0% | 18.2% | 13.7% | 636 | Maintained | Record 636 net new stores with flat comps (traffic +2%, ticket -2%) — value-led, traffic-first strategy in a soft China consumer. Restaurant margin -40bps y/y to 18.2% but operating margin expanded. Growth is units + volume, not pricing. |
| YUM | Q1 2026 | +15.2% | -18.0% | +3.0% | — | — | — | 31.3% | — | Maintained | Taco Bell carried the quarter (+8% comps, +16% op profit); KFC +2% comps on international units; Pizza Hut flat comps and -14% op profit, under strategic review with ~250 closures planned. Royalty model converting cleanly — core op profit ex-Pizza Hut +10%. |
| MCD | Q1 2026 | +9.4% | -7.0% | +3.8% | — | — | — | 45.3% | 484 | Maintained | Strongest revenue growth in eight quarters: global comps +3.8% (US +3.9%) on value platforms and loyalty, reversing -1.0% a year ago. Caveat: CEO flagged consumer "may be getting a little bit worse" and April comps turned slightly negative in US and IOM. |
| Ticker | Revenue (Q / Q-1 / Q-4) | EPS (Q / Q-1 / Q-4) | RLM (Q vs prior) | Comps (Q vs prior) | Traffic (Q vs prior) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WING | $184M / $176M / $171M | $1.18 / $1.00 / $0.99 | 25.1% vs 24.4% | -8.7% vs -5.8% | — vs — |
| SG | $162M / $155M / $166M | $1.05 / $-0.42 / $-0.23 | 10.0% vs 10.4% | -12.8% vs -11.5% | -11.2% vs -13.3% |
| SHAK | $367M / $400M / $321M | $-0.01 / $0.28 / $0.10 | 21.2% vs 22.7% | +4.6% vs +2.1% | +1.4% vs +0.5% |
| CAVA | $438M / $275M / $332M | $0.20 / $0.04 / $0.22 | 25.1% vs 21.4% | +9.7% vs +0.5% | +6.8% vs -1.4% |
| CMG | $3,088M / $3,000M / $2,875M | $0.24 / $0.25 / $0.29 | 23.7% vs 23.4% | +0.5% vs -2.5% | +0.6% vs -3.2% |
| BROS | $464M / $444M / $355M | $0.16 / $0.17 / $0.14 | 28.3% vs 27.6% | +8.3% vs +7.7% | +5.1% vs +5.4% |
| DPZ | $1,151M / $1,536M / $1,112M | $4.13 / $5.35 / $4.33 | — vs — (y/y) | +0.9% vs +3.7% | — vs — |
| YUMC | $3,271M / $2,823M / $2,981M | $0.87 / $0.40 / $0.77 | 18.2% vs 13.0% | +0.0% vs +3.0% | +2.0% vs +4.0% |
| YUM | $2,059M / $2,510M / $1,787M | $1.50 / $1.73 / $1.30 | — vs — (y/y) | +3.0% vs +3.0% | — vs — |
| MCD | $6,517M / $7,009M / $5,956M | $2.83 / $3.12 / $2.67 | — vs — (y/y) | +3.8% vs +5.7% | — vs — |
| Ticker | Signal | Rule fired | Valuation | Operating det. | Margin det. | Technical | Crowding |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SG | Watch | Mixed signals — no entry rule fired. | 0.72 | 0.75 | 0.43 | 1.00 | -0.65 |
| WING | Wait for bounce | Fundamentals weak but price -37% vs 200DMA — deeply oversold, short the rebound. | 0.66 | 0.78 | 0.03 | 0.12 | -0.58 |
| MCD | Watch | Mixed signals — no entry rule fired. | 0.51 | 0.45 | 0.07 | 0.45 | -0.00 |
| CMG | Watch | Mixed signals — no entry rule fired. | 0.52 | 0.40 | 0.19 | 0.31 | -0.00 |
| YUM | Watch | Mixed signals — no entry rule fired. | 0.48 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.55 | -0.00 |
| DPZ | Wait for bounce | Fundamentals weak but price -21% vs 200DMA — deeply oversold, short the rebound. | 0.23 | 0.68 | 0.03 | 0.21 | -0.28 |
| CAVA | Pair candidate | Valuation extreme but fundamentals still strong — pair vs cheaper leg, wait for deceleration. | 0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 | -0.33 |
| SHAK | Watch | Mixed signals — no entry rule fired. | 0.42 | 0.21 | 0.58 | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| BROS | Avoid short | Short interest extreme (44% of float) — squeeze risk. | 0.81 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.94 | -1.00 |
| YUMC | Watch | Mixed signals — no entry rule fired. | 0.05 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.39 | -0.00 |